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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #3
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #3 |
What
is the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products? |
| |
Diamondoid
molecular manufacturing systems were described and analyzed in some detail
in Nanosystems.
These systems would do scanning-probe chemistry in vacuum to build diamondoid machine
parts, including bearings, motors, cams, and scanning probe systems. |
| Subquestion |
Can a simple
set of chemical cycles be developed to process simple feedstock molecules
into renewable chemical 'tool tips' suitable for deposition fabrication? |
| Preliminary answer |
Refer to Merkle's
study on "Hydrocarbon
Metabolism". Preliminary investigation says the answer is: probably. |
| Subquestion |
Can a simple
set of deposition reactions be developed to build programmable diamondoid
parts with the 'tool tips'? |
| Preliminary answer |
Freitas and Merkle
report that they have found one, and think that six to ten are necessary;
see their
Foresight proposal. Experience based on computational chemistry
investigation says the answer is: yes. |
| Subquestion |
Can
diamondoid parts be combined into machines that can manipulate 'tool tips'
with the required precision, as well as supplying components for other types
of products? |
| Preliminary answer |
Based on Drexler's
Nanosystems, it
appears that the answer is: yes, diamondoid (3D carbon-based solid) is a
great material for nanoscale machines, is stiff enough to achieve
sub-angstrom precision at room temperature (with careful design), and also
makes great bearings, motors, etc. |
| Subquestion |
What would
be the performance of nanostructured, atomically precise diamond machines,
including strength, power handling, and digital logic? |
| Preliminary answer |
According to
Nanosystems: 100
times as strong as steel, 1015 W/m3 electromechanical
power conversion (108 increase in power density?), 1016
instructions/sec/W (106 increase in computer power?), 104
sec to double manufacturing capital. |
| Subquestion |
Can
nanoscale fabricators be combined into an efficient scalable manufacturing
system to build large products? |
| Preliminary answer |
Based on Phoenix's
nanofactory paper, it should be straightforward to build an integrated
tabletop manufacturing system producing kg-scale products (not just kg's of
mg-scale products) at kg/hour rates. The basic architecture should scale
quite a bit larger than that without sacrificing much efficiency. This work
builds on Nanosystems and Merkle's work, and shows that a much
simpler design should come within an order of magnitude of Drexler's
performance numbers (though Drexler's numbers may themselves be a
substantial underestimate). |
| Subquestion |
How
difficult will product design be? |
| Preliminary answer |
Once basic 5-50 nm
molecular components are designed and characterized, they can be combined to
make a vast range of products without further molecular design. Software
engineering methods will help, including modular design and levels of
abstraction. Reliability will be an issue but should be solvable by simple
redundancy. Above the molecular scale, products should not be much harder to
design than familiar products of similar complexity. (Note that complexity
of large products can often be reduced substantially by duplication of
simple designs.) One factor that should make design easier is the ability to
build cheap prototypes rapidly.
|
| Conclusion |
Diamond machine-phase manufacturing has the potential to be an extremely
powerful technology.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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